GM Historical Draft Rankings #18 - #20

Some Number Crunching to See Who's the Best (and Who's the Worst)
Commissioner — Jul. 08 '20

I've crunched the data on each BRHL draft from 2007 to 2017 to see who is truly the best drafter in the BRHL (and who's the worst). For each draft class I used actual NHL games played and Points per season for each drafted player to come up with a model for expected games played and points based on draft position for each draft year. Each pick was then evaluated as +/- relative to the expected values for the pick position. I then aggregated the +/- for each GM and applied a few other model corrections to account for things like the overall number of picks made by the GM.

 

Using the above methodology, I was able to rank all GMs by averaging their +/- over their entire draft history. I also broke down each GMs history year-by-year to see how they were trending, and to look for outliers that may have a large effect on their ranking.

 

#20: Joseph B: -2.56GP & -1.06Pts

A strong draft in 2013, but below average since.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 26.53 Josh Anderson 147
Worst GP -24.29 Zach Sensyshyn 27
Best Pts 14.25 Max Domi 12
Worst Pts -13.11 Haydn Fleury 20

Joeseph B (not to be confused with Joe B) looks to have hit on Max Domi and Josh Anderson in 2014 and 2013 respectively. Haydn Fleury could still turn into a solid NHLer (and is penalized a bit on point production due to being a stay at home D), but Sensyshyn looks like a solid BUST.

 

Year-by-year performance:

As mentioned, 2013 was a decent draft for Joseph, but the following years weren't great. Very few NHLers in there at all.

 

#19: Garrett H: -1.97GP & -1.14Pts

Well, we now know which Hansford is the better drafter...  Long-time BRHLer Garrett H lands at #19. He's had some pretty solid drafts, and some pretty horrid ones too.

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 52.38 Samuel Girard 60
Worst GP -44.45 Alex Cherepanov 8
Best Pts 30.42 Pierre-Luc Dubois 13
Worst Pts -25.88 Alex Cherepanov 8

Well, having your 8th OV pick die on you is a tough one. Cherepanov definetly hurts Garretts overall score, but with a total of 86 picks to his name, I don't think it would move the needle much if we took away the Cherepanov pick. Garrett has hit a few solid picks over the years, with Girard being one of the best bang for your buck picks yet.

 

Year-by-year performance:

2009 and 2013 look like solid drafts for Garrett, and 2017 is shaping up nicely too. That said, there are a few rough ones too. Notably 2010 and 2011. Scanning throug Garrett's draft history, you see a real interesting mix of some mid/late round gems and some serious early round flops. Garrett is quite and up and down drafter it seems.

 

#22: Devon C: -2.67GP & -0.38Pts

Our first Cordell to make the list. Devon has a history of 4 drafts to grade him on. Interesting to note is that his picks on average have pretty poor GP, but have quite high Pts. Maybe a bang-or bust drafter?

 

Highlights and Lowlights:

Criteria Relative Player Pick
Best GP 32.30 Damon Severson 41
Worst GP -48.99 Michael Dal Colle 2
Best Pts 32.93 Leon Draisaitl 3
Worst Pts -36.40 Michael Dal Colle 2

The famous Dal Colle pick really brings Devon down. He made a nice pick with Drai however, and Severson was a solid second round pick no doubt. Other notable picks were Derrick Pouliot at 15 (bad), Andreas Athanasiou at 94 (good), Goldobin at 19 (bad). 

 

Year-by-year performance:

Solid draft in 2013, but not great since. The amazing thing is his 2015 draft had Draisaitl, Ehlers and Fiala (3, 6 and 12), but those good picks were dragged down by Dal Colle, Goldobin and Blandisi (2, 19 and 49). Strange...

 


Comments
Jordan Hansford · Jul. 08 '20 21:11
Love these reads!

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